基于CA-Markov模型的城市土地利用变化趋势预测研究

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中图分类号：P237 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-3791（2026）04-0176-03

‘²1.东营市东凯投资促进有限公司；2.东营市祥泰人力资源有限公司

Research on Predicting Urban Land Use Change Trends Based onCAMarkovModel

ZHANG Zhiqiang1 GAO Manman²

1.Dongying City Dongkai Investment Promotion Co.， Ltd.; 2.Dongying City Xiangtai Human Resources Co.，

Ltd.，Dongying， ShandongProvince，257Ooo China

Abstract： In order to efectively reveal the inherent mechanismand dynamic processofland use change，a method for predicting the trend of urban land use change based on CA Markov modelis proposed.The results showed that the prediction errors of cultivated land and forest land using the research method were -0.70% and -0.88% ，respectively，with smallerror margins，indicating that the modelhas high predictionaccuracyforthesetwomainlandusetypes;In termsof land type prediction， cultivated land and forest land occupy a large proportion （89 483.73km2 ， 36456.18km2 ， which is of positive significance for ensuring food security and ecological environment quality.Itcan be seen that the proposed methods can efectivelyand accurately predict thetrendof urban landuse change，providing strong decision support for urban planning and land resource management.

Keywords： CA-Markov model; Urban land use; Changing trend; Land use type

随着城市化进程的加速，城市规模不断扩张，土地资源的供需矛盾日益突出。（剩余2307字）