基于模糊故障树的停堆保护系统可靠性分析

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DOI：10.19981/j.CN23-1581/G3.2026.12.024

中图分类号：TP273

文献标志码：A

文章编号：2095-2945（2026）12-0094-05

Abstract： In view of the lack of accurate historical failure data for the basic components of the "Hualong-1" shutdown protection system， this paper introduces fuzzy triangle numbers based on the traditional failure modes， effects and diagnostic analysis （FMEDA） failure data of the basic module of the safety-level DCS "Longlin" platform independently developed by China Nuclear Power Research and Design Institute. According to the fuzzy theory， a fuzzy fault tree model of the safety-level DCS shutdown protection control system is established， and the reliability analysis of the shutdown protection system is carried out. The fuzzy probability of system faults and the fuzzy importance of underlying events are quantitatively evaluated， the weak links of the system are identified， and suggestions for fault troubleshooting and design optimization are proposed based on key weak points of the system.

Keywords： Hualong-1; shutdown protection system; fuzzy fault tree; reliability; fuzzy importance

“双碳”战略驱动核电装机加速，近年核准机组数量逼近历史峰值（8～10台），随着核电在能源结构中的占比向2035年10%的目标攀升，“华龙一号”规模化投运下的核安全管控已成为实现低碳转型的核心命题。（剩余4724字）