武陵山区农业新质生产力水平区域差异及动态演进

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中图分类号：F323.1 文献标识码：A 文章编号：2095-5553（2026）02-0329-13

Abstract：Developingnewqualityproductive forces inagriculture through localadaptation iscrucial for buildingarobust agriculturalsector.Groundedin Marxisttheoryof productive forces，this studyexaminesthedynamicrelationships among the three corecomponents of agricultural new quality productive forces and establishesacomprehensive evaluation system．Using entropy-weightedTOPSIS，Dagum Gini coeficient，Kernel density estimation，and Markovchain analysis，weassssthe development level of these forcesacross71counties in the Wuling Mountain Area from 2010 to 2023，and explore regional disparities，dynamic evolution，and future trends.Results showa fluctuating yet rising trajectoryoverall，thoughstillconfinedtoalow-levelequilibrium.Hypervariationdensityremainshighlyvolatileandis the primarysourceofrelativeregional diferences.Intraregionaldisparities widened，while interregional gaps narowed， indicating uneven development among neighboring counties.Kernel density estimates reveal signsof“clubconvergence” alongsideMatthewefects，aligning withdiminishingmarginal returnsintechnologydifusion.Spatial Markovchains demonstratenonlinearadaptationandcoevolution betwee adjacent counties.Long-termprojectionssuggesta mitigation of“gradient stagnation”，makingupwardconvergenceachievable despite constraints，and implying that les-developed areascanovercomeresourcelimitsthroughcrossregionalcoordination．Theseinsightshighlightthenedfordynamic optimizationof inovative factoralocationindeveloping localizedagricultural newqualityproductive forcesin underdeveloped regions.

Keywords：new quality productiveforces in agriculture；regionaldisparities；dynamic changes；trend prediction；Wuling Mountain area

0 引言

依赖传统农业生产要素投人驱动的粗放型增长模式已显疲态，亟须颠覆性创新和基要性变革[1]。（剩余22299字）