伊犁河谷土地利用变化及生态系统服务价值响应的多情景模拟

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关键词：生态系统服务价值；土地利用变化；PLUS模型；多情景模拟；伊犁河谷

中图分类号：F301.24；X171.1 文献标识码：A

文章编号：0439-8114（2026）02-0016-11

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2026.02.004 开放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）：I

Multi-scenario simulation of land use change and its impact on ecosystem service values in the Ili River Valley

MA Ao 1 ，LIU Zhi-you1，SUN Yi²，QIN Yu3 ，LIJian-qiang1，HEHua1，YANGHong-bin1 （1.SchoolofPublicaagent（FacultyfLa），XinnggriculuralUniversity，UriO，ijang，ia;olgftal AgricultureSieeadcholanouUversittateKeyboratoryofasladgroostesaona; 3.Northwest InstituteofEco-EnvironmentandResources，Chinese AcademyofSciences，Lanzhou73ooo，China）

Abstract：BasedonthelandusedataofthIiRiverValeyfrom2Oooto2020，thePLUSmodelwasusedtosimulatethelanduseevolutionpatensuderfoursenaisofaturaldevelopentonomicevelont，colgicalprotectiondplaingitetio in2030，andthetemporalandspatialdynamicchangesandspatialaglomerationcharacteristicsofecosystemservicevalue（ ESV ）undereachscenariowerecalculatedandquantitativelyanalyzed.Theresultsshowedthatunderthefourdevelopmentscenarios，the ESV in 2030 in the study area was shown as ecological protection scenario > planning intervention scenario > natural development scenario > economicdevelopmentscenario.Underthenaturaldevelopmentscenario，theareaofforestlandandgrasslanddecreasedsignificantly;undertheeconomicdevelopmentscenario，constructionlandexpandedrapidlyundertheecologicalprotectionscenario，the rateofforestlandreductionsloweddown，ndunderthplanninginterventionscenario，theareaofcultivatedlandincreasedsubstan tially. The spatial distribution pattern of ESV in Yili River Valley under multi-scenario simulation in 2O2O and 2O3O was relatively stable.Thehigh-valueareaincreasedundertheplaninginterventionscenario，andthehigh-valueareainthenorthandsouthcentral regionchanged tothe low-valueareaundertheeconomicdevelopment scenario.The extremelysignificant hotspots of ESV were mainlydistributedintheiRiverBasinandthesouthernTianshan Mountains，andtheextremelysignificantcoldspotswere mostlydistributedinthecentralandrthepartsoftevally，orrspondingtothespatialpatteoflanduseSientificplaigandlayoutffu ture land use was the key path to enhance regional ESV and maintain a good ecological environment.

KeyWords： ecosystem service value;land usechange;PLUS model;multi-scenario simulation; Ili River Valley

收稿日期：2025-08-26

生态系统服务是人类从生态系统中获得的各种惠益，对维持人类生存和社会可持续发展至关重要1]。（剩余13437字）