基于不同极值分布的南充市极大风速估算研究

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中图分类号P425 文献标志码A 文章编号 1007-7731（2026）06-0105-05

DOI号10.16377/j.cnki.issn1007-7731.2026.06.027

Research on the estimation of extreme wind speed in Nanchong City based on differentextremevaluedistributions

HuYan1，² Rao Zhijie1，3 Luo Jia1，3 Deng Ziqi1，3 （1Severe Weather in Northeast Sichuan Key Laboratory of Nanchong City，Nanchong 637Ooo， China; ²Yingshan County Meteorological Bureau， Yingshan 6377Oo， China; 3Yilong County Meteorological Bureau，Yilong 63760o，Chia）

AbstractBased on wind speed data from 185 stations in Nanchong，Sichuan Province from March 2023 to February2024，and maximum wind speed data from7national basic meteorological stations from 2004 to 2O24，this studyanalyzes the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of maximum windspeeds in this areaand estimates the maximum wind speeds using two methods： the extreme value type I distribution and the P- ∂⋅M distribution. The results showed that （1） wind speeddistribution inthestudyareaisuneven，and strong wind events mostlyoccur in spring and summer; （2） the mean maximum wind speeds at the7 stationsrange from 13.826 to 19.737 m/s，with significant diferences;the northwest region experiences higher wind speeds due to topography;（3）estimatesusing the extreme value type Idistribution indicated that the15-year，3O-year，and5O-year maximum windspeeds at the 7 stations were 18.574-25.411，20.182-27.909，and 21.352-29.727m/s ，respectively; （4） estimates using the P-II distribution showed thatthe15-year，30-year，and 5O-year maximum wind speeds at the7 stations are 18.907-25.934， 19.563-28.522， and 20.388-29.673m/s ，respectively;（5） comparative analysis indicates that the difference between the estimated results of the 2 methods is approximately 1m/s ， indicating a small discrepancy. This study provides a reference for the early warning and prevention of strong wind meteorological disasters in relevant regions.

Keywordsextreme value typeIdistribution;P-I distribution; maximum wind speed;agricultural disaster prevention

近年来，受全球气候变化影响，极端天气频发。（剩余5216字）