中卫市春季霜冻天气环流分型及预报指标研究

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中图分类号S425 文献标志码A 文章编号 1007-7731（2026）06-0098-03

DOI号10.16377/j.cnki.issn1007-7731.2026.06.025

Classification of spring frost circulation and forecasting indices in Zhongwei City

Chen Xingyi 1，2，3 Pang Tingting1，2.3 Yang Yuan1，2，3 Li Yijing1，2.3 Hu Na1，2.3

（ 1 KeyLaboratory of Characteristic Agrometeorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management in Arid Regions， China Meteorological Administration， Yinchuan 75OoO2， China;

2 Ningxia Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction， Yinchuan 75OoO2， China; 3Zhongwei Meteorological Bureau， Zhongwei 7550oo China）

AbstractBasedon thedata from the high-densityobservation network and ERA5reanalysis data in Zhongwei， Ningxia，from 2O09 to2023，thisstudysystematicallyanalyzed theupper-levelcirculationpatternsand surface meteorological elementcharacteristics ofspring frost weatherinthis region，and establishedafrost forecasting indicators system.The results were as folows，（1）a total of30 spring frost events occurred inthe study area during 2009-2023. The upper-level circulation patterns can be divided into three types： transverse-trough turning vertical （ 50% ），zonal circulation （ 30% ），and trough-ridge eastward movement （ 20% ）. （2）Frost days exhibit typical radiation-advection mixed characteristics：controlled by high pressure，low humidity，scarce cloudcover，weak windsandprevailing northerly winds.（3） When high pressure（ ⩾ 881.5 hPa）， low humidity （ ⩽33% ）， strong wind （ ⩾4m/s ）with persistent northerly wind appearat14：OOon the daybefore frost，combined with alow-temperature background （daily minimum temperature ⩽ （20 5.3℃），the probabilityoffrostonthenextdayincreases.（4）The typical modelforspring frost inthe studyareais upperlevel cold advection + strong surface high pressure + dry and cold northerlywind，which is applicable to the short-term forecastand early warning of spring radiation-advection mixed frost.The frost forecast index system established in this paper has important application value for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation.

Keywordsspring frost; circulation background; meteorological factors; forecasting indicators

霜冻作为突发性强、影响范围广、致灾程度深的气象灾害，已成为农业气象领域的重要研究课题之一。（剩余3959字）