面向可持续发展的重大水利工程生态价值动态仿真研究

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Dynamic Simulation Research on the Ecological Value of Mega Hydraulic Engineering Projects for Sustainable Development

LUO Lan' XIONG Shuangshuang LUO Liangwen' XIONG Yi' WU Lingjun² BAI Hua² HU Yanwei³

（1.School of Public Policy and Management，Nanchang University，Nanchang 33OO31，China; 2. Zhejiang Highway and Waterway Engineering Consulting Group Co.，Ltd.，Hangzhou 31Oooo，China; 3. Zhejiang Jiaoke Engineering Management Co.，Ltd.，Hangzhou 31OooO，China）

Abstract：As China’s hydraulic engineering projects development shifts toward green growthand ecological civilization，the ecological value of mega hydraulicenginering projects has become thecore indicator for measuring project sustainability.However，existing researches predominantly focus on static evaluations and unidimensional analyses， lacking systematic insights into thedynamic evolutionof diverseecological value.Basedonsystem dynamics methodology，theecological value framework comprising five dimensions—ecological economy，ecological technology，ecological environment，ecological society，and ecological culture—and 22 factors was constructed.Using this framework，a systemdynamics model of ecological value for mega hydraulic engineering projects was developedand subjectedto scenariOs simulation analysis.Results indicate that scenarios driven bypolicy，economical growth，technological innovation， environmental friendliness，cultural prosperity，and social harmony allenhance ecological value to varyingdegrees.Among these，environmental governanceand technological innovationcontribute mostsignificantly tooverall ecological value.These findings enrich the theoretical framework for ecological value inmega hydraulicenginering projects，providing theoretical foundationsand practical insights foradvancing ecological civilizationandsustainable waterresource management in future initiatives.

Keywords：mega hydraulic engineering projects；ecological value； system dynamics

0 引言

重大水利工程不仅是我国水资源优化配置和保障水安全的重要基础设施，也是生态文明建设的重要载体。（剩余11692字）