基于“双碳”目标的山西省国土空间多情景模拟与管控策略

打开文本图片集

关键词：“双碳”目标；国土空间；碳排放；情景模拟；管控策略；山西省

中图分类号：F301.2；X321 文献标识码：A

文章编号：0439-8114（2026）01-0022-09

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2026.01.005

Multi-scenario simulation and regulatory strategy for territorial spatial planning of Shanxi Province： A perspective of "dual carbon" goals

JIAYi-kun1²，GUO Qing-xia1，2 （1.College of Resources andEnvironment，Shanxi Agricultural University，Jinzhong O3o8O1，Shanxi，China; 2.SoilHealthLaboratory of ShanxiProvince，Taiyuan O3Oo31，China）

Abstract：Basedonremotesensingdataoflanduseandsocio-economicdatainShanxiProvince from2O00to2020，theICCcarbon emisionaccountingmethodwasemployedtoaalyetespatiotemporalvarationcharacteristicsof teritorialspatialcarboneions andlanduseinShanxi Province.Threescenarios—thebaselinescenario，alow-carbonscenario，andanenhancedlow-carbonsenar io wereconstructedbyintegratingtePLUSmodelandteKayaidentity.Theevolutiontrendsofteritorialspatiallanduseadcarbon emisions from2O2Oto2O6Oweresimulated，andtheachievementof the"dualcarbon"（carbonpeakingandcarbon neutrality）goals underdifferentsenaiosasealuated.TerultsindiatedtattetotalteitoalspatialarboneissosinShaniProvincecon tiuedtorisefrom2OotoOO，withconstructionlandidentifiedasthemaincarbonemisionsourceandcultivatedlandandforest landasthe maincarbonsinks.The multi-scenariosimulationresultsshowedthatunderthebaselinescenario，thecarbonpeak wasdelayeduntil2040andcarbonneutralitycouldnotbeachieved；underboththelow-carbonandtheenhancedlow-carbonscenarios，the peakwouldbereachedby2O30，butonlytheenhancedlow-carbonscenariocouldachievecarbonneutralityby2060.Thechange in teritorialspatialpatternwasfoundtoleadtosignificantcarbonemissoneffects，andthekeyfactordrivingcarbonemision growthwasthedisorderedexpansionofconstructionland.Basedontheteritorialspatialpatenndthelevelofachievementofthe "dual carbon"goalsundereachscenario，targetedanddiffrentiatedteritorialspatialcontrolstrategies were proposed.

KeyWords："dualcarbon"（carbonpeakingandcarbonneutrality）goals；teritorialspace；carbonemisions；scenariosimulation; control strategies；Shanxi Province

2021年，政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第六次评估报告（AR6）确认了全球气候变暖与二氧化碳排放量之间的量化关系，指出人类活动每排放1万亿t二氧化碳，全球地表平均气温将上升 0.27～ 0.63C[1] ；报告同时指出，2021年全球地表平均气温较工业化前水平已高出约 1deC ，预计到2040年这一数据将达 1.5∘C[2] 。（剩余12444字）