基于静-动态风险因子的倒虹吸工程风险评估

打开文本图片集

关键词：风险分析；组合赋权；动态风险因子；静态风险因子；倒虹吸工程 中图分类号：TV67 文献标志码：A doi： 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2026.03.020

Risk Assessment of Inverted Siphon Project Based on Static-Dynamic Risk Factors

LUO Keyi 1，2 ，MA Fuheng²，YE Wei² （1.College of Water Conservancy & Hydropower Engineering， Hohai University， Nanjing 210098， China; 2.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute，Nanjing 21O029， China） Abstract：TheivertedhoprojectisyodeineaterdiversoproectIodertoesureitssfepertio，thsctosere identifiedfromfouaspects：naturalengineing，umanndmanageent，ndteivetedioskevauationindexsystemwastab lished.Consideringthifrencofskfactors，iskfactorseredividdintodyamicandstaticcategoresDyamiciskindicatorsp pearedasandomvariables withprobabilitiesfolowinganormaldistibution.Basedonmeasureddata，theriskvaluewasstandardizedand quantifidtoaluateeiskmagide.Tersultsshothatthissessmetresultsasedonstatic-dyaicisfactorsanete importanceofsfctorsinivertedsiponproectFrotsksessmentresults，itanoncdedtatteipactofturalad engineringtyerissonteinvertedsiponprojectiselativelyhigTerainstofodriskalueintedamiciskfactorsiselatively high，thegeologicalproblemsintestaticiskfactorshaveaelativelylargeimpactonthvertedsiponproect，ndthisvalueofad versegeologndfilingqalitislativelyigLaterargetdiskanagementandontrolmeasuresanbeproposdfotdispoalof static factors and the prevention and control of dynamic factors.

Key words：risk analysis；combination weighting；dynamic risk factor；static risk factor；inverted siphon project

近年来，随着国家水网工程建设的快速推进，南水北调中、东线等一批大型长距离输水工程建成运行，各地大型灌区也配套兴建。（剩余9373字）