基于水-能-粮系统的粮食主产区可持续发展路径研究

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关键词：水-能源-粮食；系统动力学模型；粮食主产区；政策模拟；可持续发展；省中图分类号：S274;TV213 文献标志码：A doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2026.03.019用格式：，，.基于水-能-粮系统的粮食主产区可持续发展路径研究[J].人民黄河，2026，48（3）：124-131.

Research on Sustainable Development Pathways for Major Grain-Producing Areas Based on the Water-Energy-Food Nexus

LIHuimin，YANGKe，HE Yihan

（North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power， Zhengzhou 45OO46， China）

Abstract：Todressteimbalancebetweewaterenergyandfood（WEF）resouessupplyddmandinajrgrain-producinggion， thisstudydevelopedasystedynamicmethodoftheWater-Enery-Food-SocietyEconoyEnvironentodelforHenanProvince model wasusedtoanalyse thedynamicresponsesofteresouesystemudervarouspolicysenariosfrom212toO30.Wedesignedmultipleindividallisdolicyobatioscdgiproveetsingaiocyjusetsioptucuretio ofenergysuplyandopulationplicies.Theresultsdemonstratedtatncreasingiigationeficencyreducedagricultualwateruseand raised the Water Security Index （WSI） from 1.046 to 1.109. Increasing the maize planting area proportion to 50% elevated the province’s share of national grain output from 10.38% to 10.45% . While expanding the planting area enhanced the Food Security Index （FSI），it also increased energyconsumption.Renewable energy policies improved long-termenergy securitybutraised short-term CO 2 emissions. Population policiesalleviatedlaboragingbutintensifiedresourcepressure.Policycombinationanalysisrevealedthatintegratedmeasuresould significantly enhance the comprehensive WEF security index.

Key words：water-energy-food；systemdynamicsmodel；majorgrain-producingregion；policysimulation；sustainabledevelopment Henan Province

0 引言

水、能源和粮食是支撑人类生存与区域可持续发展的三大基础资源，其供需平衡直接关系国家发展战略与民生保障。（剩余11315字）