鄱阳湖入湖五河含沙量长期演变与驱动机制研究

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关键词：含沙量；LSTM模型；人类活动；驱动机制；鄱阳湖五河流域中图分类号：P332.2 文献标志码：A doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2026.03.009引用格式：俞扬，姚轶，李晨韬，等.鄱阳湖入湖五河含沙量长期演变与驱动机制研究[J].人民黄河，2026，48（3）：58-65.

Study on the Long-Term Evolution and Driving Mechanisms of Sediment Concentration in the Five Rivers of the Poyang Lake Basin

YU Yang1， YAO Yi2 ，LI Chentao³，LI Dayang4，5， XIE Fei6 （1.ScholofEnvironment，singhuaUniversity，Beijing184，China；2.NationalKeyLaboratoryofWaterDisasterrevetion， Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute，Nanjing21o98，China；3.Collegeof WaterConservancyandHydropower Engineering， HohaiUniversityanjing098，China；4holofCivilEngering，anchngIsituteofThlog，Yancheng224ina; 5.School of Geographyand Ocean Science，Nanjing University，Nanjing 210O23，China;6.Gansu Water Resourcesand Hydropower Survey and Design Research Institute Co.，Ltd.， Lanzhou 73OO22， China）

Abstract：Thelong-techangsinsedmentconcentrationintfiveiersofteoyangLkeBasinsignantlyfctwaterqualitythe stabilityoflakecosystms，anddownstreamwaterresouceutliation.ThissudyemployedaLongShort-TermMemory（LST）modelto analyzetheevolutioncharacteristicsanddriving mechanismsofsdimentconcentrationbasedondatafrom1966to2O18.Temodeldeonstrated high fiting accuracy during both the training and validation periods，with Nash-Sutcliffe effciency （ NsE ） ranging from 0.89 to 0.94 and from O.82 to O.93，respectively，and root mean square error （ RMSE ）values between 0.01 and 0.02g/L ， indicating good robustness and aplcability.enrialsvealedasignifcantdecliisdimentcoceratiointhfiveiversfter9withumanctii havingagreaterimpacttanlmatechange.ThereductioninsedimentconcenraionintheGanjangandXinjiangRiversaspriarilydriven by human activities，with a contribution rate exceeding 80% . While in the Raohe River （represented by the Changjiang and Le’an Rivers）， climate change dominated，with acontribution rate of approximately 40% . Seasonal analysis showed that sediment concentration changes during thefloodseasonweremainlycontroledbyhumanativities，whilethoseduring thedryseasonwerelargelyinfluencedbyclimatechange.

Key Words：sediment concentration;LSTM model;human activity；driving mechanism；fiverivers of the Poyang Lake Basin

0 引言

鄱阳湖是中国最大的淡水湖泊，位于长江中下游地区，在调蓄洪水、维持生态平衡和保障流域生物多样性方面发挥着重要作用[1]。（剩余10772字）