气候变化下元江流域横纹南鳅潜在适生区预测

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关键词横纹南鳅;潜在适生区；MaxEnt模型；气候因子；分布区变化；元江流域

中图分类号S965.199文献标识码A

文章编号 0517-6611（2026）07-0188-06

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2026.07.035

AbstractFieldsueydataandliteratubasdoccueecosihocmaticarblesreintegratedtoodeltespidistr tionundercurrnt（1950-200）andfourfutureclimatescenarios（2050sand207OsunderRCP2.6andRCP8.5）using themaximmentro py（MaxEnt）model. The results indicated the model performed with high accuracy （ AUC>0.9 ），and the key factors influencing the distributionfSchsturafscataeremperatureelatedvarbsaalantmprature，sothealitymperatureasoalityda temperature of warmest month-together with annual precipitation，which collectively contributed 70.6% to the model. Under current conditions，ighlysuiablebiatseinlyoncentatediteastefYajaieandisarbutarsTableageor afourcliateariosintuiloceasigtdaeasoperausetidsteprarlcto derfutureclimateconditions.Thisstudyconcludesthatclimatechangewilleadtoaconsiderablecontractionofsuitablehabiatsfor S . fasciolata.Tomigatetseipacts，comendstregtinghabiatproteioioreaasandstablisngssteaticmoitoingnetok to support the species'long-term survival and regional aquatic biodiversity conservation.

KeyWordsSchistura fasciolata;Potentialsuitablearea;MaxEntmodel;Climatefactor;Distributionshift;YuanjiangRiverBasin

气候变化正深刻影响着全球生物多样性格局，尤其在淡水生态系统，鱼类作为关键指示类群，其分布变化对流域保护具有重要的指示意义。（剩余11966字）