基于SARIMA模型的我国天然气产量短期预测研究

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中图分类号：TP391 文献标识码：A 文章编号：2096-4706（2026）04-0081-05

Research on Short-Term Forecasting of Natural Gas Production in China Based on SARIMA

ZHAO Huiying， YANG Rui， SUN Meng （PipeChina Institute of Scienceand Technology， Tianjin 3oo457， China）

Abstract： Facing the complex and ever-changing international situation，the stable operation and secure supply of the China's energy market areconfronted with chalenges.Drivenby the low-carbon energytransition strategyand policies for increasingreservesandproduction，Chinahasgreatpotential toenhancetheprovenreservesandutilizationlevelofnaturalgas resources.Thus thesuplysituationof naturalgas productionandindustrialdevelopment deserve in-depth discussion.Basedon the SARIMAtime series method，thisstudy takes the interference factorofthe COVID-19 pandemic situationinto account，uses thenaturalgasproductiondatafromtheNational BureauofStatistics，andconstructsashort-termforecasting modelforChina's natural gas production. The R2 and MAPE of the model are 0.989 and 2.528 respectively，which indicates that the model has good fitingqualityanderorcontrol.Multipleevaluation indicatorsaresuperiortotraditional time seriesmodels.The natural gas production in 2025 is estimated to be 255～265 billion cubic meters. Based on the forecast results， the paper puts forward some suggestions on the stable supply of natural gas resources and the industrial development planning in China.

Keywords：SARIMA;time series; natural gas production; short-term forecasting; increasing reserves and production

0 引言

我国拥有丰富的天然气资源，累计探明地质储量19.9万亿立方米，目前探明程度和利用程度较低，具有很大的天然气开发潜力[1]。（剩余6803字）