面向低碳发展的海洋渔业生态效率评价与影响因素分析

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中图分类号：F326.4；X196；P74 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1005-9857（2025）10-0137-13

Abstract：Against thebackdropoflow-carbon development，improving marine fishery eco-efficiencyconstitutes a core pathway for achieving sustainable industrial development. Based on panel data from 1l coastal provinces （autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government）of China during 2010—2022， this study constructed a Super-SBM evaluation model incorporating undesirable outputs such as carbon emissions and environmental pollution to measure marine fishery eco-efficiency.Combined with methods including kernel density estimation and spatial visualization，the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics were analyzed，and the key influencing factors were revealed through the Panel Vector Autoregression （PVAR） model and variance decomposition．Theresults indicate that themarine fishery eco-efficiency values ranged from O.370 to 1.300 during 2010—2022，showing an overall three-stage characteristic of“rapid improvement-slight decline-basic stability”and stabilizing at a high level of 0.933～0.949 after 2016. Significant regional differences were observed：the Northern Marine Economic Circle experienced rapid growth folowed by stable fluctuations after 2010—2014；the Eastern Marine Economic Circle maintained a consistently high and stable level with slight growth;the Southern Marine Economic Circle showed fluctuating growth but with significant heterogeneity among internal provinces.The spatial patern evolved fromconcentration toequilibrium，with overallconvergenceofegional differences，the standard deviationand coefficient of variation decreased by 24.1% and 31.6% respectively，compared with 2010.Among the influencing factors，thescale effectservedas thecore driver，withits contribution degre increasing from0.658 to0.860 fromthelsttothe 5th period;the technicalefect hada weak initialcontribution but exhibited steady long-term growth to O.128；The structural effect had aweak andfluctuating contribution with remaining room for optimization.Theresearch findings provideascientificbasis for formulating differentiated policies to promote lowcarbon development and enhance eco-efficiency in marine fisheries.

Keywords： Coastal areas，PVAR model，Marine fishery ecological eficiency， Influencing factor

0 引言

随着全球气候变化的加剧，低碳发展已成为国际社会的共识[1]。（剩余17614字）