基于“四水四定”准则的泰安市水资源承载力评价研究
打开文本图片集
中图分类号：TV213.4 文献标志码：A doi ： 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2026.02.014引用格式：，，，等.基于“四水四定"准则的泰安市水资源承载力评价研究[J].人民黄河，2026，48（2）：88-95.
Research on Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Taian City Based on “ Basing Four Aspects on Water Resources" Principle
XU Xiaoqin 1，2 ， LIU Caihong2，³，FAN Mingyuan2，3， YANG Yongfeng4，KONG Ke1 ， LIU Haijiao2，3 （1.UniversityofJinan，Jinan 250022，China；2.WaterResources Research InstituteofShandong Province，Jinan 250014，China; 3.Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment， Jinan 25Oo14，China; 4.Water Resources Comprehensive Development Center of Shandong Province， Jinan ，China）
Abstract：InordertofurtherunderstandthecomprehensivestatusofwaterresourcesinTaianCity，thisstudyestablishedawateresource carringapacityevaluationindexsystembasedonthe“basingfouraspectsonwaterresources”principle.Usinganimprovedgametheory cloudmodel，vaatedatesoucecaingapacityin15，nd.Thtacledgeeodelseplodtd tifykeyobstaclefactorsafectingwateresouecaringapacityeesultsshowdthat：Keyiicatorssuchasaterconsutioper 10 000 yuan of industrial added value （ C24 ）and per capita domestic water consumption for rural residents （ C34 ），which ranked high in both subjectieandjectiveweightingresults，wereasignedcombinationweightswithinaelativelyreasonablerangethroughimprovdgame theory-basedcombinedweighting.Thisefectivelymitigatedthebiasoncertainindicatorscausedbyelyingonasingleweightigethod. Duringthetypicalyears，thewaterresourcescaryingcapacityofTaianCityshowedafluctuatingandimprovingtrendItsevaluatiograde rose from Grade II （criticalload）in2010and 2015to GradeI（tightlyload）in2020and2023.Theconstraint subsystem evolved from "basingidustrialdevelopmentonwaterresources”in201to“basingpopulationdevelopmentonwaterresources”in202，alignigith Taian'ssociocooicdevelopensage.Keyidcatorskeprapitaatersouces，wateosutionprctareofustrallad andecologicalfoguaranteatsfaorvesandlakesankedonsistentlyattforerontduingtesudyperiodIefuturaian Cityshouldcontiuouslyhanceitsaterresoscaingcapacitybystrengteningigidonstraints，upgadingteinustralstructure， and improving water resources management.
Key words：waterresourcescarryingcapacity；basingfouraspectsonwaterresources；cloud model;improvedgametheory；Taian City
0 引言
水资源是支撑经济社会发展的基础性资源，其承载力的科学评价对指导和支撑区域良性发展具有重要的现实意义[1]。（剩余10069字）
