基于2030年碳减排目标的山东省碳排放权分配研究
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中图分类号：F205；X22 文献标志码：A doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2026.02.005引用格式：，丁俊新，于会录，等.基于2030年碳减排目标的山东省碳排放权分配研究[J].人民黄河，2026，48（2）：28-34.
Research on Carbon Emission Rights Allocation in Shandong Province Based on 2030 Carbon Emission Reduction Targets
WANG Yumei，DING Junxin，YU Huilu，SUN Haiyan，QIN Weishan（School of Resources and Environmental Engineering，Ludong University， Yantai 264025，China）
Abstract：InodertoprovideasientificbasisforSandongProvinceanditsmunicipaliestofoulatesientficndreasoablearbon emssionreductiopliciesadcarbonpeakationplans，twessonreductionsenariosofbasicisionrductionndutooousemissionreductionweresetbasedontenatioalcarboneissonintensityeductiontargetin30.ThecarbonemissonsofShandongProvince and its municipalities were estimated for the period of 2022-2030 . Taking into account the principles and indicators of fairness，efficiency andfeasibilityharboesionrightsalcatioodelandhefandongProvinceereostructed，debonssu tasofvariouscitsereestimatedfromOto0.ersultssowtat：a）Underthetoforeastscenariostheotalcarboesios inShandongProvincestillshowaslowgrowthtrend，andthepeakiflectionpointhasnotyetbeenrevealed.b）Te16citiesinSandong Provinceaveobviouspreferenceforthealocationpriniple，andthecarbonemissonrightsobtainedunderthecorespondingpreference principlechemearetelrgest.c）Tecomprehensivepreferenceseistheestcarboneisionalocatioshmethatisoeceptabletothe6citiesinthenearfuture，anditcanbeterbaancetheinterestsnddevelopmentdemandsamongthecities.d）Basednthe preferredomprehensiveallcationsheme，theitieswithtehighestoverallarbonemisionquotasfromO to03areHeze，Linyi， andJining，whilethecitieswiththelowestquotasareDongying，Rizhao，andZibo.Insummary，thefolowingrecommendationsarepr posed：formulateacertainelasticityofteeaktietablebasedonthverageanalcarbonemisiogrowthateofachit；fullexplore theeergysavingandmissoductionpotetialsofachcityndaelerateteotzatioofteeestructue；ndvigooslyultivate green and low-carbon new quality productive forces with the orientation of high-quality development.
Key words：carbon emission reduction target；carbon emission rights；city scale；Shandong Province
全球气候变化带给人类的生存挑战日益严峻，碳排放问题备受关注，碳减排压力日益加大。（剩余11174字）
