多源因素影响下泰安市产水量变化规律研究

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Abstract：Wateryield，oneoftheindicatorscharacterizingwatersuplycapacityinecosystemservicefunction，isof great significanceforecosystemevaluation.ThispaperadoptstheAnnualWaterYieldmoduleoftheInVESTmodel，andutilizes GISspatialanalysis technologytostudythevariationpatersofwateryieldinTaianCityanditsresponsetomulti-source factors（precipitationpotentialevapotranspiration，landusetpes，netprimaryproductivityandtemperature）.esults show that temporally，theaverage annual water yield in Tai'an City from 1990 to 2022 is 234.92mm ，showing an increasing trend at a rate of 2.1mm/yr ；The main cycle of water yield change is 25 years，with an abrupt change observed in 2018. Spatially， 94.1% of the areas in Tai'an City exhibit an increasing trend in water yield，with the spatial aggregation patrn dominated byhigh-valueclustering;Hotspotsare mainlyconcentrated intheeastern andurbanareasofTai'an City，while coldspots are mostlylocatedinthewesternandmountainousregions.Thewateryieldcapacityofdifferentland-usetypes，in orderfromightolow，isconstructionland，grassand，cropland，forestland，ndwaterbody.Amongthemulti-source factors，the wateryieldinTai'an Cityshowsastrongpositivecorrelation with precipitation，whichis highlysignificant.Both exhibittrongcoherencecharacteristicsacrosall temporalandspatialscales.Incontrast，thecorelationsbetweenwater yieldand potential evapotranspiration，net primaryproductivity，and temperaturearerelatively weak. Under futurechanging environmentalconditions，withtheincreaseinprecipitationandtheexpansionofurbanland，wateryieldisexpectedtosow anincreasing trend.Thefindingsofthestudyprovideimportantinsights forecosystemasessmentandthespatiotemporal management of water resources in Tai'an City.

Keywords：Wateryield;InVESTmodel;Tai'anCity;influencingfactors

近年来资源约束趋紧、环境污染严重、生态系统退化、发展与人口资源环境之间的矛盾日益突出，已成为经济社会可持续发展的重大瓶颈制约[]。（剩余13936字）