中老年群体无牙颌风险预测模型的开发与验证

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中图分类号：R787 文献标志码：A DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1003-1383.2026.01.005

【Abstract】ObjectiveWiththecontinuous increaseof theaging population，therisk ofedentulismamong middle-aged andelderlypeoplehassignificantlyincreased.Thisstudyaimedtodevelopandvalidateapredictivetoolfortheriskof edentulisminthis population.MethodsData were drawn from the2O15waveof the China healthandretirementlongitudinal study（CHARLS）.Atotalof 55O2qualifiedsamples were includedandrandomlydivided intoatrainingsetandavalidation set at 7：3 ratio.Core predictors were selected bylogistic regresson combined withthe least absolute shrinkage and selection operator（LASSO）algorithm，andavisualizable risk-assessment nomogram model was constructed.The model performance was validated through the area under the receiver operating characteristic （ROC）curve（ AUC ）and calibration curve. ResultsThe prevalence of edentulism included in the sample was 15.54% （855 cases）.Age，cognitive function，place of residence，history of asthma，and white blood cell count were identified as key predictive factors.The AUC value of the predictionmodel reached 0.754（ ），and the slope of the calibration curve was close to the ideal diagonal.ConclusionThe predictive model presented inthe formofacolumn chartprovides clinical doctors witha visual risk assessmenttolforscreening high-risk individuals withedentulous jawsinthemiddle-agedand elderlypopulation.Its excellent calibration and differentiation abilities confirm the clinical applicabilityof the model.

【Keywords】middle-aged and elderly people；edentulism；prediction model； nomogram;China health and retirement lon

gitudinal study（CHARLS）

口腔健康问题作为全球范围内普遍存在的健康挑战，累计影响超过35亿人[]，其中无牙颌病例数达3.53亿[2]。（剩余10685字）