高温干旱复合事件对晋北饲用燕麦生产的影响

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中图分类号： S543+ .7 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1007-0435（2026）02-0424-13

Abstract：To investigate the impact of compound drought and hot events （CH） on the productivity and phenology of forage oats （Avena satirua L.） in Shuozhou，and to explore how the accumulated temperature requirements during the growth period offorage oats should be adjusted for coping with such events，this study utilized validated APSIM （Agricultural Production System sIMulator）to conduct simulation analysis at six sites in Shuozhou within baseline and future senarios in combination with climate model.Based on APSIM model validation（2O23 aboveground biomass Normalized Root Mean Square Erro： 9.19% ，2022—2023 soil moisture NRMSE： 25.69% ）and scenario simulations，the results indicate that future climatic hazards in Northern Shanxi willbe intensified.By the 2O7Os，the frequency，duration，and intensityofCH would generally ncrease with a decreasing trend from east to west. This led to a reduction in forage oat yield of 2046.2kg⋅hm-2 during CH-occuring years compared to the multi-year average.Furthermore，the durations from emergence to initial flowering and from initial flowering to fullflowering were prolonged byO.97 days and O.26 days，respectively. However，optimizing cultivar selection based on site-specific climate conditions could increase forage yield by （204号 1.95% to 23.65% . The results of this study could provide a theoretical basis for forage oats production to cope with CH，and ofer some guidance for breeding strategy and field management offorage oats in the future. Key words：APSIM;Forage oats; Compound drought and hot event;Climate change

极端气候事件是全球气候研究的重点1，中国近几十年来温度上升速度高于全球平均水平2，未来气候趋向暖湿，但区域差异显著[3]。（剩余24628字）