基于故障树与贝叶斯网络的汽车线束开发风险管理

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【欢迎引用】.基于故障树与贝叶斯网络的汽车线束开发风险管理[J].汽车文摘，2026（2）：42-51. 【Cite thispaper】ZHANGWT.Risk Management inAutomotiveHarness Development BasedonFaultTreeAnalysisand Bayesian Networks[J]. AutomotiveDigest （Chinese）， 2026（2）： 42-51.

中图分类号：U463.6 文献标志码：A DOI： 10.19822/j.cnki.1671-6329.20250027

Risk Management in Automotive Harness Development Based on Fault TreeAnalysisandBayesianNetworks

Zhang Wanting1，2

1.CommercialVehicleTechnologyCenter，ShanghaiAutomobileGroupCompanyLimited，Shanghai 2438;2.Schoolof Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering，Shanghai Jiao Tong University，Shanghai ）

【Abstract】This paperaims to enhance the effectiveness of risk management in theentire vehicle development processBasedonaSino-foreigncooperative entirevehicleresearchand developmentproject，thestudyanalyzes the characteristicsofthelow-voltage harnessinvehicles，identifiesandcategorizesriskfactors，andutilizesfaulttreeanalysis tomodelthecausalrelationshipsofvariousrisks.Theserelationshipsarethenmapped intoaBayesianNetwork（BN）.By employing thefuzzsettheory，collectedexpertopinionsare transformedintopriorandconditional probabilitiesof node events，establishingariskassessmentmodel forvehiclelow-voltage harnessdevelopmentbasedonfaulttre-Bayesian network.Thismodelquantifiestheprobabilityandimpactofriskfactors.Forkeyandsensitiverisk factors，corrsponding risk response strategies are proposed，providing effective risk management for harness development.

Keywords：Automotive wiring harness，Risk management，Fault Tree Analysis （FTA）， BayesianNetwork（BN）

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