‘双碳”背景下秦皇岛市畜禽粪便碳排放与减排潜力测算分析

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关键词：畜禽粪便；碳排放；多因素灰色模型：秦皇岛；碳减排潜力；资源化利用中图分类号：X713 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1672-2043（2026）01-0262-07 doi：10.11654/jaes.2024-1080

Calculation and analysis of carbon emissions and emission reduction potential of livestock and poultry manure in Qinhuangdao City under the background of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality

QI Haiyun1，2，3， ZHAO Zhongbao1，2，3*，LIU Shengyang4*，LI Fengxin'，GENG Shigang1，2，3 （1.HebeiUniversityofEnviomentalEnginering，Qinuangdao660，China;2.HebeiKeyLaboratoryofgrocoloicalfety QinhuangdaoO66102，China;3.KeyResearchandCuivationBaseofHumanitiesandSocialSciencesinHigherEducationIstitutioin HebeiProvince，Qinhuangdao O66102，China）;4.Nanjing Forestry University，Nanjing ，China） Abstract：Inordertoclarifythecurentsituationofcarbonemissonsfromlivestockandpoultrymanureandthecarbonemissionrduction potentialinQinhuangdaoCitythisstudyinvestigatedgreenousegasemisionsfromlivestockandpoultrymanuremanagementusing livestockandpoultrypopulationdatafromfourmajortypesinQinhuangdaoCityfrom213to2O22asactivityleveldataAbaseline scenariowasestablishedthroughfieldsurveys.Theemisionfactormethodandmulti-factorgreymodelwereusedtocalculatethrt carbonemissosfromlivestockandpultrymanureinQinhuangdao，predicttheirdynamic trends，andesscarbonreductiopotetial underdiffrent managementscenarios.Theresultsshowthat，from2O13toO22，thecarbonemissionsfromlivestockandpoultrymaure in QinhuangdaoCitysowdtrdofsingenfallngflowdbysowise;andalaetemaisoucsofcarbo; underthebaselinesenario，theCOzeoflivestockandpoultrymanureemissiosinQinuangdaoCityisexpectedtoreach13790tby 2030andwillbeinaontiuousupwardtrend.Underthetwolowabonscenariosoffulliogasproductionandfullompostingcrbon

emisionswillbereducedby45360tand650OOtrespectivelyby2030.Underthescenarioofdynamicadjustmentofmanagement methods，the inflection pointof carbon emissions from livestock and poultry manure can be achieved in 2028.

Keywords：livestock andpoultrymanure;carbonemissions;multi-factorgreymodel; Qinhuangdao;Carbonreductionpotentia;resource utilization

全球气候变暖是当前人类面临的重大环境问题，其中二氧化碳（ CO2 、甲烷（ CH4） 氧化亚氮（ N20 等温室气体的大量排放被认为是导致气候变暖的主要因素。（剩余13367字）