基于扩展Budyko模型的淮河中上游径流变化多时间尺度归因分析

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关键词：气候变化；人类活动；径流；Budyko模型；淮河

中图分类号：TV;TV88.3 文献标志码：A

doi：0.3969/j.issn.000-379.06.0.006

Multi-Timescale Attribution Analysis of Runoff Changes in the Middle and Upper Huaihe River Based on the Extended Budyko Model

ENG Mingyue  ， YUE Shuaijun ， JI Guangxing，HUANG JunchangCHEN Weiqiang，GUO Yulong ， GENG Jianxi （20 （1.College of Resources and Environment，Henan Agricultural University， Zhengzhou 450046，China ;

2.Henan Engineering Research Center of Land Consolidation and Ecological Restoration，Zhengzhou 450o46，China）

Abstract：Duetohangesincimateadumanfactors，ufacerunohanges.Inthisstudyinodertoeasurethecontributiofate andhumanfactorstothechangeofrunoffinthemiddleandupperreachesofteHuaieRiverfrom982to2O19，thisudyfistsedaKendalltrendaalsistoonductanabuptchangenalysisoftheodataintebasinen，deteeteabruptchangeyeaofrof withinthe iverbasin，anddividetestudytimeperiodintoabaselieperiodandamutationperiodThecontributionofmateandhuan factorstothernoffchangesinthemidleandupereachsoftheHuaieRverasquantiativelymeasuredbasedotheextendedBudyko modelatthre-tiescalesmothseason，andear.Teresultsareasfolows：a）Onthemothscale，themontsinichcliticfcto ledtoanicreaseinofareJuary，Februar，April，ay，Jun，ndDecemberndthmonthsinichteyledtodecrase offareMarchulyuusteptebctobrndovber；Aropgetoseaseeoepthfded HuaieRiverinJauary，October，November，ndDecember，anddecreaseitinterestof temonths.b）Onaeasoalscaleumanfactorsaredomnantindugnfisngumd.Catectosieaserfiallfoursaos，ithhse ingsmallerthantedecreasecausedbyumanfactors.Inwinter，imateandumanfactorshaveasmal-scaleincreasingefectorunoff changes.c） On an annual scale，climatic factors lead to an increase in runoff depth of 4.71mm ，and human factors lead to a decrease in runoff depth of 89.75mm ，and human factors have a greater efct on runoff change than climate factors.

Key Words：climate change；human activity；runoff；Budyko model；Huaihe River

0 引言

径流是地球水文循环的重要组成部分，地表径流的来源主要是降水和地下水，而降水量的大小受气候因素的影响，大气环流的冷热交替通过雨、雪、冰川等形式增加地表径流量1；地下水资源量的丰缺程度与大气降水和地下淡水量有关，人类生产、生活等活动对地下水资源的利用是地下水资源量减少的主要途径。（剩余12834字）