基于STIRPAT模型的安顺市碳达峰峰值预测

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关键词：土地利用；情景分析；碳排放；碳达峰;STIRPAT模型

中图分类号：X321 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1003-5168(2025)22-0112-05

DOI: 10.19968/j.cnki.hnkj.1003-5168.2025.22.019

Prediction of Carbon Peak in Anshun City Based on STIRPAT Model

LI Lin YIN Qinghui (Anshun College of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Anshun 561ooo, China）

Abstract: [Purposes] Predicting the carbon peak for Anshun City is of great significance for achieving its carbon peak goal and formulating alow-carbon development strategy.[Methods] The total land use carbon emissions in Anshun City from 2012 to 2022 were calculated.The LMDI decomposition method was used to analyze the factors influencing carbon emissons in Anshun City.The STIRPAT model was constructed,and ridge regression combined with scenario analysis was employed to predict the carbon peak time and value for Anshun City.[Findings] The results show that under the low-speed and mediumspeed development scenarios,Anshun City reaches its peak in 2O30 and 2O26,respectively, with peak values of 3.92O 4 million tons and 3.831 O million tons,while no peak appears underthe high-speed scenario.[Conclusions] According to the socio-economic development conditions of Anshun City,the medium-speed development scenario is optimal. Based on this,countermeasures and suggestions are proposed, including rationally controlling population growth,developing green GDP,improving energy efficiency,and optimizing the land use layout.

Keywords: land use; scenario analysis; carbon emissions; carbon peak; STIRPAT model

0 引言

目前，国内针对碳排放情况的研究主要包括两个方向：一是分析碳排放变化的影响因素；二是建立碳排放预测模型，对未来碳排放情况进行预测[1]。（剩余7626字）