基于机器学习降尺度的黄河上游陆地水储量变化分析

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文献标志码：A

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2026.05.011

引用格式：杨增平，仙巍，李明朔，等.基于机器学习降尺度的黄河上游陆地水储量变化分析[J].人民黄河，2026，48（5）：72-79.

Analysis of Terrestrial Water Storage Changes in the Upper Yellow River Based on Machine Learning Downscaling

YANG Zengping 1，2， XIAN Wei 1， LI Mingshuo 1， YANG Bo 1， XU Yinghan 1， WEN Jianya 3

College of Resources and Environment， Chengdu University of Information Engineering， Chengdu 610200， China; Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Observatory， Hohhot 010000， China; Shuozhou Meteorological Bureau， Shuozhou 036002， China）

Abstract： To enhance the rational utilization of resources and ecological conservation， and to obtain a high-resolution understanding of terrestrial water storage changes in the Upper Yellow River， this study used topographic data and hydrometeorological variables. These variables included elevation， slope gradient， aspect， precipitation， air temperature， soil moisture， normalized difference vegetation index， runoff and GLDAS surface water changes. Three machine learning models （CNN-LSTM， Random Forest and XGBoost） were employed to enhance the spatial resolution of terrestrial water storage changes derived from GRACE data from 0.25° to 1 km. The CNN-LSTM model demonstrated better downscaling performance， with a root mean square error of 0.33 cm. Comparative validation with measured data from groundwater observation wells yielded a goodness-of-fit R2 of 0.51. Regarding terrestrial water storage changes in the Upper Yellow River： Spatially， the southwestern region （centred on Maqu to Longyangxia） exhibited an increasing trend of approximately 0.2 cm/a， while the northeastern region （centred on the internal drainage basin） showed a decreasing trend of approximately -0.6 cm/a. Temporally， terrestrial water storage underwent an abrupt change in 2009， shifting from an upward to a downward trend. The overall slope of the fitting straight line for terrestrial water storage between 2002 and 2022 was -0.15 cm/a.

Key words： terrestrial water storage; CNN-LSTM; RF; XGBoost; EOF analysis; Sen-MK trend test; Upper Yellow River

黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展是习近平总书记亲自擘画、亲自推动的重大国家战略，对实现“两个一百年”奋斗目标和中华民族伟大复兴具有重要意义[1]。（剩余13242字）