区域碳排放分解预测及“双碳”路径规划研究

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中图分类号：F062.2；X321 文献标志码：A

Decomposition-forecasting and pathway planning for regional carbon emissions toward dual-carbon goals

XIE Guoqing，LI Junxiang，QU Deqiang，LIU Qi （1.Businesshool，UnversityofShanghaiforSienceandTechnology，Shanghai 2oo93，China;2.Schoolofathematics and Statistics，Henan University of Science and Technology，Luoyang 471O23， China）

Abstract： Current economic growth in China remains highly dependent on energy consumption， making carbon emission reduction a challenging task and necessitating the exploration of viable pathways to decouple economic growth from carbon emissions. Although the classical Kaya model plays a fundamental role in decomposing the factors of carbon emisions， its structure is relatively simple and fails to adequately reflect the impact of multiple economic sectors and complex energy structures on carbon emissions. Moreover， it lacks capabilities for forecasting and pathway analysis， thereby limiting its effectiveness in supporting regionally differentiated emission-reduction strategies. This study systematically extends the Kaya model by constructing a carbon-emission indicator system that encompasses economic， demographic， and multi-energy consumption sectors. Combined with the LMDI decomposition method，the contribution of each factor to carbon emissions is quantitatively assessed. The STIRPAT model isintroduced to analyze the interrelationships among variables，and ridge regresson is employed to mitigate heteroscedasticity， thereby enhancing model-fiting quality and forecasting robustness. A carbon-reduction pathway analysis framework based on the PATH-STIRPAT model is developed to identify the main challenges in achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality and to plan corresponding dual-carbon pathways. An empirical study using data from a coastal region in southeastern China during the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plan periods demonstrates that the proposed approach can clearly identify the key driving and restraining factors of carbon emissons in the region，accurately predict the timing of carbon peak， and identify the most immediate and effective emission-reduction pathways. It provides a scientific theoretical basis and practical guidance for the precise formulation of carbon-reduction policiesat the regional level.

Keywords： dual-carbon goals； pathway analysis； Kaya model; carbon-emission forecasting

目前全球气候变化给全人类生存和发展带来严峻挑战，因此碳减排刻不容缓。（剩余9478字）