基于ANP-云模型的舰艇演训活动安全风险评估

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摘 要：针对舰艇海上训练面临的风险因素众多、复杂、相互交叉、相互制约、难以评估的问题，构建了基于云模型和网络分析法的评估模型，并结合实例进行了分析验证。结果表明：该方法充分考虑了风险因素之间的相互关系，有效克服了模糊性和随机性对评估的影响，为舰艇训练安全风险评估提供了一种新的思路。

关键词：网络分析法;云模型;舰艇训练;风险评估

中图分类号：U674.7;E917    文献标志码：A    DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1673-3819.2022.04.013

Security Risk Evaluation of Warship Training Activities Based on ANP-Cloud Model

ZHU Gui-hua， SUN Xu-wen

（Dalian Naval Academy， Dalian 116018， China）

Abstract：In view of the problem that the risk factors faced by warship maritime training are numerous， complex and cross constrained， and it is difficult to evaluate， an evaluation model based on cloud model and ANP is constructed， which is analyzed and verified with an example. The results show that this method fully considers the relationship between risk factors， effectively overcomes the influence of fuzziness and randomness on the evaluation， and provides a new idea for warship training safety risk evaluation.

Key words：ANP; cloud model; warship training; risk evaluation

海上训练是使舰艇在近似实战条件下全面提高海上整体作战和执行任务的能力的根本途径，而随着实战化军事训练改革的持续推进，舰艇演训活动呈现科目多、强度高、要求严的特点，舰艇备战训练面临的不确定性风险更加复杂、难以评估。（剩余7235字）